Portfolio mix simulator
Balance shares, bonds, property, private equity, private credit and venture, and see what the mix does to expected return, volatility, liquidity and capital calls.
Move any slider and the others adjust in proportion, so the mix always adds to 100%. Select a slice of the donut to jump to its slider.
Illustrative, not a forecast or a recommendation. On J.P. Morgan's 2026 assumptions, with venture's correlation adjusted for slow valuations.1,2,3
Assumptions and sources
Based on J.P. Morgan Asset Management's 2026 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (Australian dollar matrix, 10 to 15 year horizon, data as at 30 September 2025).1 Private assets are J.P. Morgan's median-manager estimates net of fees, and outcomes between managers vary far more than the averages suggest. Venture capital isn't in the Australian dollar matrix, so its return, volatility and correlations come from the US dollar matrix. Global shares are unhedged; property and private credit are hedged to Australian dollars; private equity is unhedged.
The mix return is J.P. Morgan's arithmetic returns weighted by the mix, less half the portfolio variance, as an approximate compound annual return. Volatility for private equity, private credit, property and especially venture understates the real risk, because their valuations are smoothed and marked infrequently. The listed-only comparison leaves property where it is.
The Hardman presets use that paper's venture weights; the risk-matched balanced mix also moves shares to 37% and bonds to 55%, as the paper does, so it trades some return for lower volatility.2 "60/40 with 8% in venture" keeps the bonds at 40% and takes the venture out of shares. The correlation switch changes only venture's links to listed assets. "Adjusted for slow valuations" uses J.P. Morgan's matrix, about 0.64 with shares. "As reported" uses what reported return series show: AngelList measured 0.0 against the Nasdaq (2015 to 2020) and Invesco −0.06 against large-cap shares, so venture is set to −0.06 with shares and 0 with cash, bonds and property.3 How shares split between Australian and global is ours.
Capital calls assume each private allocation is committed in full at once and called evenly over four years, with no distributions or fees shown. The ESVCLP offset is up to 10% of eligible contributions, non-refundable, and claimed through the tax return for the year each call is paid.4
| Asset class | Compound return a year | Volatility |
|---|
Australian dollars unless noted.
Sources
- J.P. Morgan Asset Management, 2026 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, Australian dollar assumption matrix (data as at 30 September 2025): compound and arithmetic returns, volatilities and correlations over 10 to 15 years. Venture capital figures from the US dollar matrix of the same edition. ↩
- Hardman & Co, How much should clients invest in venture capital? (TES white paper, 25 November 2021): optimal venture weights by risk profile, 60/40 case 8% seed or 13% scale-up. ↩
- AngelList, Innovation isn't Correlated with the Markets (Abe Othman, 11 May 2020): 0.0 correlation between AngelList's seed portfolio monthly returns and the Nasdaq, 2015 to 2020, no significant lagged correlation; cites Invesco's -0.06 between venture and large-cap equity returns, and a very weak link between Cambridge Associates vintage TVPI and public market indices. ↩
- Australian Taxation Office, ESVCLP tax incentives and concessions. ↩